One value chain — critical minerals, battery gigafactories, incentives, charging networks and the businesses in between. Data window 2025 → Jul 2026, built from Transport Canada's EV dashboard, NRCan, CER-REC, Ontario & Quebec government sources and 2026 charging trackers. Use the ⬇ PDF / A− / A+ toolbar (bottom-right) to download as PDF or resize text.
Canada's light-duty ZEV share nearly quintupled between 2019 and 2024 — then dropped in 2025 when the federal iZEV rebate ended (concluded 2025-03-31). The second half of 2025 recovered toward 2024 levels, with Quebec (18.5%) and British Columbia (18.3%) at roughly double the national rate.
| Light-duty ZEV share of new sales | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEV | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 6.7% |
| PHEV | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Total ZEV | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 10.3% |
2025 quarterly: Q1 9.7% · Q2 9.2% · Q3 10.5% · Q4 12.1%. CER-REC: Q1 2025 ZEV sales fell 23% year-over-year and share slid to ~9% — iZEV ended. By Q4 2025 the share recovered to 12.1%, near early-2024 levels. Federal EVAS mandate from 2026: 20% of new sales → 60% by 2030 → 100% by 2035.
| Medium- & heavy-duty ZEV share | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
MHD ZEVs are the furthest behind — and the highest-margin opportunity (section 5). In operation (2025-10-01): 726,126 light-duty BEVs (2.7% of fleet), 304,823 PHEVs, 10,463 medium/heavy-duty BEVs. ~1.03M EVs on Canadian roads total.
The biggest policy fact of the window: the federal consumer rebate (iZEV) ended in March 2025 — and the fleet program (iMHZEV) was cut and then closed. Provinces like Quebec and BC now carry the incentive load, while the federal money shifts to industrial policy (batteries, minerals) and charging infrastructure.
| Program | Who | 2025→2026 status | Key numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| iZEV (light-duty) | Federal | Concluded 2025-03-31 | Up to $5,000/vehicle; 2024-25 claims 196,171 (QC 116K · BC 30K · ON 35K) |
| iMHZEV (fleet MHD) | Federal | Concluded 2026-03-31 | Up to $200,000/vehicle; claims 2022-23 352 → 2024-25 4,844 → 2025-26 YTD 5,094 |
| Federal grants | Federal | iMHZEV funding cut | 2024-25 Main Estimates $596.4M → 2025-26 $264.7M |
| ZEVIP (charging infra) | NRCan | Active until 2027 | Indigenous stream up to 75% of costs, max $2M/project; small sites via redistributors; mega-projects separate |
| Roulez Vert | Quebec | Reopened 2025-04-01, phase-out to 2027 | BEV $4,000 (was $7,000) · PHEV $2,000 · used BEV $2,000; new EV fee in 2027; 376,000 rebates ≈ $2.3B over 12 yrs |
| Ontario industrial | Ontario | Continuing despite US tariffs | $46B+ EV/battery investment in 5 yrs → 50,000+ direct jobs; $25B automotive since 2020 |
Electric Mobility Canada's 2025 brief to Parliament asks Ottawa to: reinstate the 100% first-year capital-cost allowance for MHD ZEVs (phasing out by 2026), sustain & expand iMHZEV, bundle charging-infrastructure funding with vehicle funding, add conversion incentives, and set national MHD ZEV sales targets.
The network grew fast through 2023–24, then slowed as federal programs wound down — but 2026 data shows the buildout is now outpacing demand: operators added capacity faster than drivers used it, and national fast-charger utilization fell to ~9.5%.
| Public chargers (cumulative) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 2 | 2,054 | 6,359 | 9,502 | 9,972 | 12,169 | 15,412 | 21,095 | 26,205 | 30,289 |
| Fast (L3) | 455 | 835 | 1,579 | 2,202 | 3,048 | 3,656 | 4,718 | 6,093 | 8,075 |
| Total | 2,509 | 7,194 | 11,081 | 12,174 | 15,217 | 19,068 | 25,813 | 32,298 | 38,364 |
| 2026 tracker (fast-charging only) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| DCFC ports, Q1 2026 | 9,472 nationally (+668 in Q1; fewer stations, larger sites) | Paren — Q1 2026 |
| DCFC added Q2 2026 | +390 ports / 99 stations (Apr–Jun), +30% vs Q2 2025 | Paren — Q2 2026 |
| Network growth 2025 | +17.4% YoY; DCFC stations +33.6%; DCFC ports +28% → 8,804 | Electric Autonomy · DriveAuthority |
| National utilization | Fell to ~9.5% (from 11%+) — supply ahead of demand | Paren — Q2 2026 |
| Market size | $44M (2026) → $84M (2031), 9.5% CAGR | MarketsandMarkets — Jul 2026 |
| Network (operator-reported) | Fast ports / stations | Level 2 / stations | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Electric Circuit (QC) | 1,504 / 523 | 8,418 / 3,053 | 847 ports ≥100kW, 10 ≥350kW; target 2,530 fast ports by 2030 |
| BC Hydro | 684 / 178 | 195 / 56 | +382 ports in 2025; first 400kW chargers Jan 2026 |
| Circle K / Couche-Tard Recharge | 1,395 / 497 | 6,375 / 2,575 | Convenience-store corridor network |
| Hypercharge (MURB / fleet) | — | 5,700 ports / 585+ sites | Multi-unit residential focus; Hypercorp solar+storage launch Jan 2026 |
Pricing ranges ~$0.16–$0.45/kWh across networks; reliability varies sharply by operator — the 2026 growth theme is fewer, bigger, faster sites, not more small ones.
Canada is ranked #3 globally for availability of EV battery raw materials and is a top-10 producer of nickel, cobalt, graphite, aluminum, lithium and platinum-group metals. The 2024–2034 pipeline is the largest clean-energy industrial buildout in the country's history — and most of the value now sits in processing and cell-making, not mining.
| Anchor project | Location | Investment | What it does |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volkswagen PowerCo gigafactory | St. Thomas, ON | $7B | Cells for ~1M EVs/year |
| Stellantis–LGES | Windsor, ON | $5B+ | Li-ion cell & module plant |
| GM CAMI Assembly | Ingersoll, ON | $2B | First all-electric assembly plant in Canada |
| Ford–EcoProBM–SK On | Bécancour, QC | $1.2B | Cathode active material (CAM) & precursors; $644M gov't |
| Umicore | Ontario | up to $1B | CAM / pCAM plant; ~1M EV capacity/yr |
| Sayona North American Lithium | Quebec | mine opened 2024 | First new critical-mineral mine in operations 2024 |
| Vale / Glencore | NL / QC | expansions 2024 | Voisey's Bay & Raglan nickel expansions completed |
Recycling is maturing too — Toronto-founded Li-Cycle is North America's largest pure-play lithium-ion battery recycler (NYSE-listed). With ~$20B of cells already installed in Canada, the end-of-life wave is a growing feedstock.
Where the 2025→2026 data points to money being made. Ranked by market gap (demand vs supply) × policy tailwind (incentives that exist right now) × entry cost.
Fleets face a mandate wall (EVAS starts 2026) with almost no turnkey help. The highest-leverage business: depot charging + vehicle procurement + telematics as a managed service for mid-size fleets that cannot build this capability in-house. Federal money still flows to fleets ($264.7M in 2025-26), and the industry's #1 policy ask (100% first-year CCA) would make the TCO math decisive.
Most Canadians without a driveway can't get a charger — landlords won't install and the public network (already oversupplied) isn't a substitute. The proven play is Hypercharge's: L2 charging in apartment/condo and workplace garages, monetized per session, with a 2026 extension into solar + storage + charging (Hypercorp Energy Solutions). Public fast-charger oversupply (utilization 9.5%) is an argument for going where the network isn't.
Canada is #3 for raw materials but ships most of them out unprocessed — the value-add (cathode/anode precursors, sulphate, battery-grade graphite) mostly happens offshore. The federal strategy is explicitly spending $4B to pull processing home, and the gigafactories need domestic inputs. Midstream processing is the bottleneck with the widest margin gap.
The first mass wave of EV batteries is approaching end-of-first-life, and the federal government is funding processing & recycling R&D specifically (NRC + NRCan). With ~1.03M EVs already in operation and 2024-25 alone adding ~196K iZEV-subsidized vehicles, feedstocks are compounding. Second-life storage (grid/building) monetizes batteries before recycling pays.
As fleets electrify, the operating pain shifts from hardware to software: charge scheduling against demand charges, cold-weather range planning, route optimization with charger availability, and compliance reporting for subsidies. Canada's cold climate is a moat for local routing/range software that American tools handle poorly. Recurring SaaS on top of a hardware buildout is the highest-margin slice.
With ~81.5% of charging done at home/workplace and only ~30K public L2 ports serving 1M+ EVs, residential and workplace installs remain a high-volume, cash-flowing trade — every EV sale needs one. It's the least glamorous and most reliably paid business in the ecosystem, and it compounds (panel upgrades, storage, heat pumps) into a broader electrification-trade book.
Four charts, all from the sources in section 6. (1) Light-duty ZEV share 2019→2025 shows the 2025 rebate gap and recovery. (2) Public chargers 2017→2025. (3) EVs in operation by type. (4) Anchor battery-manufacturing investments by project.
Chart 1: 2019 3.1 → 2024 15.4, then 2025 10.3 (iZEV ended Mar 2025). Chart 2: total chargers 2,509 (2017) → 38,364 (2025). Chart 3: LD BEV 726K, LD PHEV 305K, MHD BEV 10K. Chart 4: VW $7B, Stellantis-LGES $5B+, GM $2B, Ford-Bécancour $1.2B, Umicore $1B.